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2017 Power Rankings-Week 10
Introduction Holy...shit... Folks, I know what it looked like a few weeks ago. The playoff race was over. There was a huge gap between sixth and seventh and the bottom teams were looking like a steaming pile of Paddock 9. But with the way the last few weeks have gone, all of that is out the window. In week eight, we had 2nd play 3rd, 6th play 7th, and 9th play 10th. In week nine, we had 3rd play 4th, 5th play 6th, and 9th play 10th. And because of that we are looking at a whole different landscape with four weeks remaining. 1st place lost. The huge showdown between 3rd and 4th came down to less than one point. The 5th place team dropped to 7th. The 8th place team moved to within one game of 6th. First things second, I want to thank RIPDab for stepping up to the plate and hitting a solid sacrifice fly last week in my absence. He learned the hard way that being Commish isn't as easy as it looks and I thank him for reaffirming how great I am. Finally, I have to say I don't quite understand how we ended up here in week 10. It seemes like just yesterweek that I was wondering whether I should start putting playoff scenarios/odds in the rankings and I kept telling myself "nah, it's too early." Well, it's not too early anymore. The fantasy season is almost over. And for four teams, it's really almost over. Let's body slam these power rankings like Mike Evans did to that poor innocent man on the sidelines. The Bust Zone I know what you missed most: CHARTS. So I loaded today's rankings with charts. Scary ''to think of how many games Beckham has now missed and how close to Jordy Nelson he is in scoring. Nelson was a disappointing pick the moment GBM drafted him, and being outscored by DeMarco Murray is the icing on the bitter cake. Meanwhile, does Gurley have a chance at 400 points? He (Drafted 10th) and Bell (Drafted 2nd) are certified fresh no matter what happens from here on out. Rookie Rundown This is the year of the rookie back. Let's look at how some of these young studs are performing in 2017. Fournette and Kamara is looking like a nasty RB tandem, if only GBM can get them on the field at the same time. Fournette, still 6th among RBs, has missed week 7 (injury), week 8 (bye), and week 9 (being an irresponsible little bitch). Hunt, meanwhile, leads all rookies in FPS but but has not broken 30 points in six weeks, has not broken 23 points in four weeks, has not broken 14 points in two weeks, and now has a bye. TRADE DEADLINE The trade deadline is 11/11/17 at 11:59PM Pacific Time. That is this Saturday night. This is the final reminder. Absolute Standings Absolute standings is something I started tabulating at the beginning of this season but haven't really had a chance to put them in a Power Rankings yet. Absolute Standings is simply this: what if instead of matchups, the top five teams got a W every week and the bottom five took an L? If that was the case, here is what the standings would look like today: Trade Tracker It seems only right that we bring back something that I really enjoyed (but that no one else has ever mentioned so not sure if people actually care). It's time for 2017 Trade Trackers! Trade tracker is keeping us apprised of the ramifications of trade Wednesday, as well as the week 8 and 12 trades for GBM. In the first and third columns, the points scored by traded players in starting lineups (if they are benched, those points are not tallied). Per player average took the total points and divided by the total number of starts so far. For example, GBM has started Thompson twice, so two. Thus the per player average is 65.60 divided by 3. MMMS has gotten five starts out of the four acquired players. Starts: *Wentz: 2 *Crowder: 1 Starts: *Thompson: 2 *Brady: 1 It is hard to track the implications of those two trades since they really worked together. Maybe next week I'll combine these two trade trackers. Starts: *McCaffrey: 1 *Abdullah: 1 *Morris: 0 Starts: * Elliot: 1 * Cooks: 0 * Olsen: 0 Starts *Miller: 1 *Snead: 0 *Juju: 0 *Duke: 0 Stat Chat Some clean up to do from last week, when we didn't do Stat Chat LOC *Sweet Dee moves to 3-19 lifetime in the month of October (0.136) *TSB's six-game win streak was the longest win streak in their franchise history. *JJS is on the longest win streak in their franchise history (5 games) and the second longest win streak in the modern era (2015-present). *MMMS, PP, and RIP become the first three teams to play 100 combined games. RIP managed 53 wins in that span while MMMS managed 51. Papa is behind with 41. Four more teams hit the mark this week. *JJS is on a current five-game win streak during which no opponent has scored over 186 points. No team scored under 185 points during JJS’s four game losing streak. *After failing to break 220 in each of their first four games, TSB has now gone over 230 points in four of the last five weeks. NFL *Devonta Freeman (RIPDab) has just one carry inside the 10-yard line since week 4. *Christian McCaffrey (P9) had 82 snaps, 15 carries, 20 touches, and 7 redzone opportunities in week nine. All career highs. Maybe the trade to a playoff team awakened something in him. *Ameer Abdullah (Papa) has finished as a top-24 RB in just 27% of the weeks he has played in his career. *Only 1.9% of Kareem Hunt's (Duck Punchers) touches have come within the 5-yard line. *Alvin Kamara (GBM) has finished as a top-11 RB three times since Adrian Peterson was traded. *Evan Engram (Duck Punchers) has finished as a top-4 TE in every game played without OBJ. Playoffs?? I can't think of a great alliterative title for this section right now. Mathematically, everyone is still in striking distance of the playoffs. Obviously, some teams are better off than others. Magic Number A Winning Magic Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must '''win' to guarantee winning a given playoff spot. ^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must win in order to guarentee this spot. DNCD - Means team Does Not Control Its Destiny, and thus even after winning all remaining games they need help from other teams. * - Indicates First Round Bye Elimination Number An Elimination Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must lose to guarantee losing a given playoff spot. ^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must lose in order to guarentee losing this spot. MW - Means team Might Win this spot even if they lose the rest of their games. * - Indicates first round bye Matchup Recap Last week our interim commish may or may not have forgotten to do a matchup of the week. Okay, he did. But that's okay, because we had a discussion over what the MOTW was and the unanimous decision was that Garoppoblow Me vs. The Shotti Bunch was the winner. GBM and TSB finished one and two last regular season, with TSB obviously going on to win the title. But things had changed for GBM since then and the four-game losing streak was their worst since 2014. TSB got off to a rocky start with McCoy on Thursday, and with Gordon on the bye the three-headed RB Monster only had two heads, and one had just been cut off against the Jets. GBM was looking great until Leonard Fournette was DQ'ed for bad behavior. Suddenly, the playing field was leveled. Lucky for GBM, Alvin Kamara put the team on his back. Blow Me matched Shotti blow for blow. The battle at defense and QB was epic and close and ultimately this game came down to Monday night, when Tate and Marvin Jones went toe-to-toe. Jones was the clear winner of that round, but since GBM had stacked a decent lead, Shotti didn't stand a chance after Tate made several big receptions in the second half. Just when you thought Commish was dead, he came roaring back from the grave. Now the one-seed is up for grabs and there is a right race between 4th-7th place. Power Rankings 1(1). The Shotti Bunch (7-2) There was a moment Sunday when I wondered if TSB lost his touch. Chasing points in T.J. Yeldon seems like such an RIPDab thing to do. But it cost them the game and now they are at risk of dropping from the top spot. But due to his high point total, Shotti still looks locked in for yet another bye and a title run. ---- 2(2). The Duck Punchers (7-2) So far so good with Zeke, but we'll hear more today about his status for the rest of the year. While the world has been focused on runningback, the High-Flying Duck offense leads the LOC in receiving yards with 3503. The last time they lead the league in receiving yards they won the Glory Bowl. ---- 3(3). RIPDab (6-3) What a photo finish for RIDDab. RIP comes back from down 44.37 on Monday Night Football by playing a streamer defense against a streamer QB. They win by less than one point after a Prater field goal cost Green Bay Defense six points. So now in a span of two weeks they have won a game by 0.97 and lost a game by 1.87. ---- 4(7). Garoppoblow Me (4-5) The gang's all here (except for Fournette, who missed picture day). For the first time since September, GBM has a full team. And the difference showed as he lead the league in scoring in week 10. Granted, now he loses Wentz to the bye, but GBM is positioned for success if he can pull off at least two more wins in the next four weeks. Currently in 6th place, his last two games are against the 7th and 8th place teams. ---- 5(4). Paddock 9 (5-4) As long as P9 refuses to bow to the Fantasy Gods, he will have his soul crushed in games like this. Aaron Jones basically a non-factor and not even on the field for the final garbage time drive (in which the third string RB ran it in for a TD with no time left on the clock). How beautifully poetic fantasy is, because RIPDab won on a 40+-yard pass bonus and P9 had Doctson come within ONE YARD of a 40+-yard pass bonus on Sunday. Shades of when GBM came one yard away from a championship in 2010, B.L (Before LOC) before time. Perhaps most disheartening is that Will Fuller went from a fantasy stud to a droppable WR in the span of one mid-week practice thanks to the loss of Watson. ---- 6(6) JarJar Stinks! (5-4) NOT great losing Mike Evans to a one game suspension the same week you're facing the best team in the league. But even if JarJar's five-game losing streak ends against The Shotti Bunch they could not have asked for a better end to the season. After facing 1st place, they go against 7th, 9th, and 10th to finish the year. This team could surprise us all and actually make the playoffs. ---- 7(5). Pain Train WOO WOO (4-5) Maybe I'm a power rankings snob, but Pain Train at five last week was a head scratcher. After starting 3-0, Pain Train has won just ONE GAME in the last six weeks! And I'm pretty sure Desean Watson and Aaron Rodgers were both healthy for at least half of those games. I think it is time we admit this team has deeply rooted roster problems. That being said, they have a game against Garoppoblow Me coming up that could determine the six-seed. ---- 8(8). Ma Ma Momma Said (3-6) Here's a question: Is anyone else super paranoid about Jared? I know he's 3-6 but I get this sinking feeling that he's somehow going to pull it off this November and break into the playoffs. That would involve going at least 3-1 and doubling their current win total, but in reality they have scored over 210 three of their last five weeks and broken 229 twice in that span. This team has boom potential. ---- 9(9). Sweet Dee (2-7) Sweet Dee was 0-6 after her first appearance on LOC Gameday Morning, then 1-0 after her second, but now 0-1 again after her third. She should make a fourth appearance to kick off a mega-win streak. ---- 10(10). Papa's Pussies (2-7) Sad to say, I think the trade with Paddock 9 was the proverbial nail in the coffin for Papa. I didn't understand the trade when it went down, especially given that Papa didn't exactly pillage P9 for picks in the process. But it was not in the cards this year for Papa. They have gotten screwed almost every week with matchups and after losing David Johnson in week one there just wasn't a way to recoup the loss of points. Now I think we focus on trying not to finish last and hope for the best with injuries in 2018. Sad, sad day for the LOC. Matchups of the Week The Undercards The Shotti Bunch (219.68) vs. JarJar Stinks! (157.64) The Shotti Bunch is beginning the Gauntlet of the Gods, a trial by combat that leads right up until the playoffs. Last week, the Gauntlet began with a loss to last year's regular season champ, but this week the matchup is not as thrilling. This is a Glory Bowl VI rematch that packs very little punch. The Shotti Bunch is coming back to full power and JarJar is down a couple of men. Shotti is 2-1 against JarJar and this would be the most shocking win of the year if JarJar pulls it off. The Duck Punchers (182.80) vs. Papa's Pussies (143.18) I don't know how so much could have changed in the two weeks between the first 2017 game between these two, but it has. Papa pulled the upset last time, but now they have dropped to 10th place and look like a shadow of themselves. This is another Glory Bowl I rematch and unless Duck Punchers loses Zeke (which is possible), Papa needs to Hail Mary and hope for a miracle. Pain Train WOO WOO (203.65) vs. Sweet Dee (199.97) Sweet Dee already lost once to Pain Train this year, and this second matchup is the first time since that Pain Train is facing a non-playoff team. While that might be a welcomed relief, the 5-4 lifetime record against Dee suggests that this will be a closely contested bout with a lot on the line. RIPDab (195.73) vs. ma ma momma said (164.49) These numbers are inaccurate, as Momma has yet to pick up a QB. I'm sure this would have been a good time to own Big Ben, but Big Ben has apparently rung his final bell in London. My guess is Momma put a waiver claim in for Stafford, who would join the team November 11th. Meanwhile, it is full steam ahead with Brady for RIPDab. This is the only matchup between these two, and RIP owns the series 7-3 despite one of those losses coming in the playoffs during momma's championship year. The Main Event Garoppoblow Me (209.50) vs. Paddock 9 (181.76) * 2017 Records ** Paddock 9: 5-4 (4th) ** Garoppoblow Me: 4-5 (6th) * Head-to-Head Wins ** GBM: 8 ** P9: 5 * Key Players on Bye (GBM) ** Carson Wentz * Key Players on Bye (P9) ** Alex Smith ** Harrison Butker * Key Injuries (GBM) ** Michael Thomas (Questionable) * Key Injuries (P9) ** Paul Richardson (Questionable) * Players to Watch (GBM) ** Jared Goff: Those 60 points will be hard to replicate but if he stays hot against Houston it will be hard for McCown to keep pace. ** Jordy Nelson: The last time he faced Chicago he torced them for 70+ yards and two scores, but there's that whole Hundley replacing Rodgers thing to worry about this time around. ** Leonard Fournette: Hasn't played in almost a month so he's either fresh or rusty and I bet we find out early against the 3rd worst rushing defense in the league. * Players to Watch (P9) ** Adrian Peterson: Short week to rest after 37 touches in week nine and not the best matchup but the Cards have said they're going to keep feeding him the rock. ** Gronk: He should feast on this defense. Like..FEAST. ** Keenan Allen: Allen goes against Jax, which is GBM's defense. There is not a lot to love about this WR group, but if Allen steps up it helps P9 in multiple ways. As we get to the final stretch we focus in on matchups that have big playoff implications. A win by GBM would leap frog them into 4th place if JarJar loses. And while Paddock 9's playoff status isn't in jeopardy this week, if they lose they could drop as low as 6th, with two other teams hot on their tail. This matchup has been brewing all season. The back and forth with the Pat on the Back, the failure to accept the Fantasy Gods. There is a lot to love about this one. No matchup of the week winner has failed to score 200, so the key to this one is to be the guy who beats their projection. If Paddock 9 can hit 200 (which would mean almost 20 above projection), I think they have a good shot. But if Jacksonville and Goff both have games similar to Wentz and Philly had last week, there will be a big mountain to climb for Josh McCown and the struggling WR corps. By the way, Paddock 9 is still alive for a bye spot. But if they can't win this week they can basically kiss that goodbye. Get it...good BYE?